The Taylor Hall Dilemma or NOT

Taylor Hall of the New Jersey Devils is slated to become an unrestricted free agent at Noon on July 1, 2020 a little more than a calendar year from today. He has one year left on his deal at $6 Million AAV. There is no secret that General Manager Ray Shero has a very tall task in convincing the 2018 NHL MVP and his biggest acquisition as GM to sign with the team long-term and possibly for the rest of his career. David Pagnotta of the rumor blog TheFourthPeriod.com released an article suggesting Hall is in no rush or is not even interested in signing an extension at the moment or possibly this upcoming season.  So, here are the main questions surrounding him and his future:

1) Will Taylor Hall sign an extension before or on July 1, 2019? 

So, here is the deal, NHL protocol states that an upcoming unrestricted free agent in the following Summer cannot sign an extension until July 1 of the previous year. Being that Hall is to be a UFA on July 1, 2020, he can sign his new deal on July 1, 2019. The Devils and Hall can verbally agree to a deal beforehand, but cannot be signed until then. 

Now, to the big answer: I do not know what his mindset is given this very minute. Sure, Pagnotta could have caused some panic among some Devils fans by going way negative on his future in NJ, but lets be clear let's not rush to any big rationale judgments. Obviously NJ has a big history of losing high profile players to unrestricted free agency such as Alexander Mogilny in 2001, Bobby Holik in 2002, Joe Nieuwendyk in 2003, Scott Niedermayer in 2005, Scott Gomez and Brian Rafalski in 2007, Brian Gionta and John Madden in 2009 and most notably Zach Parise in Summer of 2012. But, that was in the old Lou Lamoriello regime, so the Taylor Hall situation will be the first big challenge for Ray Shero as Devils GM. He has already succeeded with Kyle Palmieri. 

Mike Morreale of NHL.com reported that Hall's agent Darren Ferris has had dialogue with Shero but no contract offers have been exchanged, but Ferrris believes there should be no issue as to getting a deal done, so the ball is ultimately in Hall's court. In his year end presser, Hall mentioned he wanted to talk to his family and friends and see what Shero will do this Summer before deciding on future. That answer ultimately is the reason why I believe for now, that an extension will not be signed before or on July 1, 2019. 

2) Does Hall's injury this past season affect his new contract? 

Taylor Hall won the Hart Trophy for league MVP in 2017-2018 when the Devils for the first time since going to the Stanley Cup Finals in 2012 made the playoffs as the final team in the Eastern Conference and this was the first time for him there as well. Hall had 39 goals and 54 assists for 93 points in 76 games for NJ. However, this past season he only played in 33 games and posted 11 goals and 26 assists. 

Hall's injury was always kept as a lower body injury, and the team was very quiet on the nature of it for the whole season. It was rumored to be a torn meniscus, the same injury Parise had in 2010-2011 and only opted for a 1 year deal as a Restricted Free Agent. But, back to Hall, I do not believe his injury will affect his next deal. Yes, even at full health, we all expected a drop from his MVP form the year before. NJ lost to the Tampa Bay Lightning in 5 games in Round 1. 

Last Summer's biggest free agent John Tavares took a hometown discount to sign with the Toronto Maple Leafs on a 7 year/$77 Million deal ($11M AAV). I think Hall will command in the neighborhood of $10 to $11.5 Million on a 7 or 8 year term. 

3) Will Hall sign a new deal prior to training camp and is there a drop dead date? 

So, back to notion that Hall would like to see what Ray Shero does to improve his team this Summer. Free Agency in the NHL is much different this time where most of the talent gets scooped up virtually in the first 2-3 days of free agency. The Draft is obviously on June 21st and NJ have the 1st overall pick and are expected to take center Jack Hughes of the USNTDP or Finnish forward Kaapo Kakko. 

Hughes skates and trains with Hall in Toronto every Summer and the two are great friends and Shero has a connection to the Hughes family. The expectation is that it will be Hughes to NJ at 1, but will that be enough to satisfy Hall? Probably not quite yet but a positive step. 

NJ has a lot of salary cap space this Summer in fact roughly $35.6 Million, 2nd most to Colorado. Some RFA's will have to be fitted with the likes of Will Butcher, Pavel Zacha if not traded and Connor Carrick. Hall's new deal will not take effect until September 2020, so Shero will have to allocate next Summer's budget to him if he re-signs him. 

Despite finally breaking the playoff drought in 2018, Shero chose to remain very quiet in the Summer of 2018 in free agency and the trade market only making moves to shore up Binghamton's roster. NJ lost their two deadline acquisitions in Pat Maroon and Michael Grabner to St. Louis and Arizona respectively. Despite their hot 4-0-0 start to this past season, the team took a step back and missed the playoffs again with Hall hurt. 

Shero's mindset was to create cap space for this Summer and beyond knowing the importance of a potential Hall deal along with having to re-sign possibly defensemen Sami Vatanen and Will Butcher along with Hall's line-mate and center in 2017 top overall pick Nico Hischier, who played a pivotal role in his MVP season in 2017-2018. 

Obviously, Shero did also say at his year end presser that NJ lacks talent in certain areas and that he plans on adding to and developing his current roster. But, Hall will likely want to wait til mid July at the earliest to start contemplating any decisions on his future. That said, I do not believe it will be healthy for him and the Devils to go into next season and have his future hang in the clouds during the season as it will cause certain distractions and put pressure on the roster to perform immensely better. 

Should, the two sides not come to a deal prior to training camp, I would expect Ray Shero to explore a trade for Hall. And the price will definitely be very huge. I will stay out of the prediction business on this, but today's article by Pagnotta was more about him wanting Hall to test free agency in 2020.